UKGC Final Report Black Market Scale Remains Elusive 10 November 2025

We may receive a commission when you sign up through links on this page—at no extra cost to you. Our opinions are independent and based on licensing checks, T&Cs review, payout testing, and user feedback.
Reviewed by: Sara G., Compliance Editor - Last reviewed: 10 November 2025

UKGC Concludes Illegal Gambling Series: Black Market Scale Remains Elusive

The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has published the fourth and final installment of its major research series on illegal online gambling, titled Estimating the Size of the Illegal Online Gambling Market. The concluding report, detailed in a recent Commission update, highlights the persistent methodological challenges in accurately assessing the true scale and monetary value of the unregulated sector.

Despite extensive analysis, the UKGC acknowledged that data limitations and necessary assumptions prevent the publication of a definitive figure for the size of Britain's illegal market, a complexity it compared to estimating other illicit trades like the illegal tobacco market.

Assessment Methods and Limitations

The UKGC focused its investigation on two primary quantitative methods, ultimately rejecting a third due to reliability concerns:

1. Dwell Time Approach: This method converts player engagement data (time spent on site) into spending estimates by applying known data from the legal market. A review of 117 players engaging with illegal sites indicated that sports betting was the most popular activity (34% of participants), followed by bingo (14%), and slots/instant win games (13%). The regulator, however, noted that the small, unrepresentative sample size limits the reliability of these specific findings.

2. Channelisation Approach: This method compares market participation between regulated and unregulated "channels." The report warned that the large scale of the licensed market makes the channelisation rate extremely sensitive to error. For example, based on an annual Gross Gambling Yield (GGY) of £6.9 billion, a deviation of just 0.5% in the channelisation estimate could equate to a £34.5 million difference in the associated estimate of GGY for the illegal market.

3. Survey-Based Approach (Rejected): This method was not pursued for market size estimation because consumer recall of past gambling expenditure in surveys was deemed generally poor and unreliable.

Consumer Motivations and Enforcement

While the UKGC confirmed that its research found no evidence of sustained, significant growth in consumer engagement with illegal platforms, it stressed that the risk to consumers and the integrity of the regulated sector remains acute. Findings improved the understanding of consumer motivations, which vary widely from simply being unaware that a site is unlicensed to deliberately avoiding the regulated market due to restrictions like self-exclusion schemes.

For consumers seeking a safe and regulated environment, a comprehensive list of trustworthy UKGC-licensed casinos remains the best alternative to the black market.

In conclusion, the UKGC reinforced its commitment to tackling this dynamic threat through strategic partnerships across the financial, technological, and regulatory sectors. The Commission plans to continue strengthening its evidence base by analyzing new data sources, including VPN usage trends and search activity for unlicensed operators.